Results and Discussion
The results of a comparison of the current predicted areas between the weighted and equally weighted show slight differences in areas of where the habitat is most and least suitable. Within the top 25% of most suitable habitat, the weighted MCE has 180 788 hectares while the equally weighted MCE has 130 696 hectares. However, overall they both show the general areas in which the current distribution is in as well as share common areas of where hound’s tongue could be found. The weighted habitat models the current distribution much better than the equally weighted leading to a conclusion that the weights were appropriate. The weights used on each of the criteria in the MCE appear representative in the model when we compare the weighted to the equally weighted model.
The results of the future predicted habitat for climate change show a general trend of moving north. The weighted and equally weighted do show differences in where the habitat is most and least suitable. Within the top 25% of most suitable, the weighted MCE has 768 259 hectares while the equally weighted MCE has 408 665 hectares. The general trend of the suitable habitat moving north is expected based on climate change predictions that areas will tend to be warmer in higher latitudes.
A comparison of the current and future models, both weighted and equally weighted shows an increase in area by 4 times, for the top 25% suitable habitat. This is a concern because of the large area increase means that the invasive species could potentially move into more agricultural land and have negative impacts on livestock. In addition, there is a northward movement of the invasive species can be a concern for many farmers as well invasive species management personnel. The increase of temperature due to climate change may see a shift in agricultural lands towards the north, where the increase of temperature may make it suitable for agricultural purposes, specifically for animal grazing. With climate change predictions, the model shows the distribution of hound’s tongue to move away from the Southern Interior of BC and move towards the Northwestern Caribou and the Northwest Nechako region.
Hound’s tongue, if it is not managed and eradicated within its current distribution, could continue to spread and establish at higher latitudes, which could be even more detrimental to the livestock. There was a study about the toxicity of hound’s tongue on calves and it was found that dosages of varying amounts eventually lead to death or health complications (Baker 410). With regards to the toxicity of hound’s tongue, the cost of this invasive species is high, especially for agricultural lands. An economic model of projected costs of invasive species showed that agricultural industries would be negatively affected by invasive species $170 million per year (Colautti 54). This model for agricultural industries loss includes a loss of property value, loss in reproductive yield and a loss in international trade (Colautti 54). All in all, the removal of hound’s tongue would be beneficial for the agricultural industry. The MCE of current potential habitat is useful for the agricultural industry to use to implement programs to remove the species.
The results of the future predicted habitat for climate change show a general trend of moving north. The weighted and equally weighted do show differences in where the habitat is most and least suitable. Within the top 25% of most suitable, the weighted MCE has 768 259 hectares while the equally weighted MCE has 408 665 hectares. The general trend of the suitable habitat moving north is expected based on climate change predictions that areas will tend to be warmer in higher latitudes.
A comparison of the current and future models, both weighted and equally weighted shows an increase in area by 4 times, for the top 25% suitable habitat. This is a concern because of the large area increase means that the invasive species could potentially move into more agricultural land and have negative impacts on livestock. In addition, there is a northward movement of the invasive species can be a concern for many farmers as well invasive species management personnel. The increase of temperature due to climate change may see a shift in agricultural lands towards the north, where the increase of temperature may make it suitable for agricultural purposes, specifically for animal grazing. With climate change predictions, the model shows the distribution of hound’s tongue to move away from the Southern Interior of BC and move towards the Northwestern Caribou and the Northwest Nechako region.
Hound’s tongue, if it is not managed and eradicated within its current distribution, could continue to spread and establish at higher latitudes, which could be even more detrimental to the livestock. There was a study about the toxicity of hound’s tongue on calves and it was found that dosages of varying amounts eventually lead to death or health complications (Baker 410). With regards to the toxicity of hound’s tongue, the cost of this invasive species is high, especially for agricultural lands. An economic model of projected costs of invasive species showed that agricultural industries would be negatively affected by invasive species $170 million per year (Colautti 54). This model for agricultural industries loss includes a loss of property value, loss in reproductive yield and a loss in international trade (Colautti 54). All in all, the removal of hound’s tongue would be beneficial for the agricultural industry. The MCE of current potential habitat is useful for the agricultural industry to use to implement programs to remove the species.
© Andrea Eisma, University of British Columbia, 2013